Fed to announce pivotal rate decision as inflation and war with Iran cloud outlook

After two days of closed-door sessions, the Fed's open market committee (FOMC) will announce its decision at 2:00 pm (1800 GMT), followed by a press conference by Chairman Kevin Warsh.

On Wednesday, officials will decide whether to raise interest rates to tame price pressures or keep them unchanged as they wait and see what happens with the economy.

Kevin Warsh is saying less about where policy is headed and about his own thinking.

CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 0% chance of a cut, 62.1% chance of no change, and 37.9% chance of a 25bp hike, while Citadel's Frank Flight and bond strategist Harley Bassman bet on a surprise hike.