A critical period is possible for Ukraine ahead of Russia’s anticipated large-scale offensive this summer. Russia’s success in breaking through defensive lines could be exacerbated by continued ammunition shortages.
ISW analysts emphasize that timely and adequate support from the West is key to Ukraine’s ability to defend its territory and resist new Russian attacks soon. At the moment, despite the Ukrainian military’s efforts to slow the advance of Russian troops, the shortage of military equipment and ammunition caused by the delay in Western assistance leaves the front line critically vulnerable.
According to the report, the Russian military may try to intensify its attacks in the spring, before the onset of difficult weather conditions, to take advantage of the current state of Ukrainian defenses. While the specific goals of the Russian summer offensive remain uncertain, it is clear that any success in the coming weeks could be a starting point for further operations.
Despite the challenges, the Ukrainian military has demonstrated its ability to deter Russian attacks, giving reason for optimism about its ability to further strengthen its defenses. However, the lack of new funding from the U.S. Congress, including the unapproved $60 billion aid package, as well as insufficient munitions production by partners, increases the risk of Russian reinforcement in the coming months.
