Supply shock: The Iran war will change the oil market forever

U.S. blockade fuels bigger price fears

The Iran war has not only slashed energy supply by disrupting tanker ‌traffic out of the Gulf, but marks the biggest hit to refining since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, with damage to facilities and crude shortages forcing cuts in processing.

OPEC also lowered its demand growth forecast for 2026 to around 1.2 million barrels per day, down from about 1.4 million bpd previously.

Russia’s total oil output fell by 460,000 barrels per day compared to a year ago, averaging 8.8 million bpd in April.